„Cornerstones” for 2013 budget in place
It is a great success, Minister Matolcsy emphasised, that the structural balance of the budget has been improved in excess of EU requirements, achieving an increase of over 2 percent. The report prompted the Government to request Parliament to adopt the 2013 Budget Act, as the key estimates necessary to it are already available. According to the Autumn Forecast of the European Commission, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio will be 2.5 percent of GDP in 2012, 2.9 percent in 2013 and 3.5 percent in 2014. The deficit forecast for 2012 is more optimistic than that of the Government Minister Matolcsy added. Speaking about the 2.9 percent Hungarian deficit expected by the Commission for next year, he pointed out that the objective of the Government is to bring the figure down to 2.7 percent. He stated that the verdict of the Commission is interpreted by the Cabinet as a strong signal that Hungary will be off the list of countries under EDP in June 2013. Minister Matolcsy also emphasized that the European Commission has acknowledged those Hungarian calculations and estimates which point at a lower deficit figure for next year, certainly below 3 percent. At the request of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, however, next week at a Government meeting certain additional studies, forecasts and regulations will be analyzed in order to ensure that the current projection of 2.9 percent is sufficient for the lifting of EDP. According to the Ministry for National Economy, economic growth in 2013 will be significantly higher than the 0.3 percent figure anticipated by the Commission, well above 1 percent. In accordance with former plans, the Government will then also implement the wage hike scheme of teachers at the previously planned date. “Chances are good that growth will be above 1 percent,” he said, referring to recent vehicle industry capacity expansion at, for example, Opel and Mercedes. From these alone the Government anticipates at least 1 percent GDP growth for next year. Minister Matolcsy underlined that the Government does not share the view of the Commission concerning the state budget deficit which is projected to increase to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2014. As the Minister argued, the expectations of the Commission are based on some unfounded forecasts on lower lending in the bank sector resulting from the bank tax and the transaction duty. In his opinion bank lending has declined as a consequence of overexposure in 2005-2008, especially to foreign currency lending, and not because of extra taxes. Projected losses at the Hungarian National Bank are also unjustified in the view of the Minister, as the Commission has pinned down a concrete figure for 2014 without the country having a budget for that year. Regarding the 2012 budget the Minister added that due to some technical issues it will have to be modified. Among the reasons he mentioned the taking over of the debt of local governments stressing that the Government will adhere to the 2.7 percent deficit target for 2013.
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