Following the announcement of the agreement between Putin and Trump on October 9, 2026, the futures price of diesel fuel fell significantly, but this does not necessarily mean that fuel prices at the pump will drop by the same amount.

How much did prices fall?

U.S. diesel futures price: −4.61%

On October 9, 2026, the closing price was $4.73 per gallon.

According to a DTN energy market report, U.S. ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) futures fell by 22.71 cents, or 4.61%, in a single trading session.

What happened to European and global diesel prices?

For the Hungarian market, the ICE gasoil market in London is particularly important. On October 9, the October futures contract fell by 1.74%, closing at $1,483 per metric ton. However, the price had traded significantly lower during the session.

According to the announcement, the agreement involved Russia supplying:

• More than 300,000 metric tons of diesel immediately.
• An additional 500,000 metric tons in November.
• Further shipments totaling millions of metric tons at a later stage.

The announcement also coincided with a temporary easing of U.S. sanctions. Markets reacted to expectations that these developments would increase supply.

What does this mean for Hungary?

A decline in global market prices does not automatically translate into an immediate reduction in diesel prices in Hungary.

There are three main reasons for this:

• European market conditions: Diesel prices are influenced not only by Russian supplies but also by the conflict in the Middle East, refinery capacity, and inventory levels.
• Exchange rates: A stronger U.S. dollar against the Hungarian forint can offset some of the benefits of lower global prices.
• Wholesale pricing: Changes in wholesale purchasing costs do not necessarily appear immediately at petrol stations.

Experts have also warned that the actual delivery of the announced Russian volumes remains uncertain, meaning that a sustained decline in prices is not guaranteed.

Conclusion

Following the announcement of the agreement, U.S. diesel futures fell by more than 4.5%, while European gasoil futures closed 1.74% lower on October 9.

This created short-term downward pressure on prices, but it does not yet establish that diesel prices at Hungarian petrol stations will fall by a similar amount.